For those that were skeptical about my last insights, a brief update to current market conditions and dynamics: losses have increased dramatically, with rates at the epicenter of everything.
Last UK crazyness has brought a negative vortex with rates exploded north of 5%, with contagion to every fixed rate proxy. Mortgages have basically stopped and sky high prices coupled with inacessibility to finance create a total unaffordability.
Traded REITs are collapsing, also in sector like logistic!
"Real" real estate are the last shoe to drop, also super prime and prime market will be affected.
Cash is being remunerated, a 2 years note yield in US and UK is 4.5% or more. Cap rates at 3% in Paris or Berlin are totally no-sense now, this is negative leverage!
At the same time a lot of new development will be stopped and the imbalance remain, only in US multifamily there's a large pipeline. Only the second-hand market can adjust the mismatch.
So i'm waiting for an increase number of listings and slashing prices, US and Australia are the canary in the coalmine here, look at there!
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